Market Commentary.

11 Jan, 2017

Turnaround on Track at St Barbara

By |2017-01-11T00:15:43+11:00Jan 11, 2017|Case Study|

In December, St Barbara (ASX: SBM) announced the US$20 million buyback of its Senior Unsecured Notes, effective 20 January 2017 (in addition to previous reduction of debt by ~US$100 million). This buyback is set to reduce the company’s future interest expense by A$2.4 million p.a., hence strengthening its overall net-cash position. The decision by the Australian-based gold producer and explorer was [...]

9 Jan, 2017

Weekly Highlights

By |2021-09-24T09:38:24+10:00Jan 9, 2017|Market Commentary|

Against a global environment of easy money and low interest rates the dominant investment theme of 2016 was yield chasing. However, by mid-2016 this thematic showed early signs of unwinding. US inflation expectations began to rise due to reversion in both energy and commodity prices. Compounding this volatility was multiple events increasing political risks. Although the initial reaction arising from the [...]

19 Dec, 2016

Weekly Highlights

By |2021-09-24T09:38:25+10:00Dec 19, 2016|Market Commentary|

Last week the spotlight was on the Federal Reserve’s December meeting. As expected, the US central bank increased the base rate by 0.25% but what wasn't anticipated was possibility of further hikes in 2017. Due to slightly more optimistic economic projections, consensus from the FOMC meeting suggests there will be three more rate hikes in 2017 instead of two. Unsurprisingly, [...]

11 Dec, 2016

Interest Rate Commentary

By |2016-12-11T23:58:14+11:00Dec 11, 2016|Market Commentary|

Last week was a mixed bag in terms of economic data. As expected, the RBA left the cash rate unchanged at 1.50% but a few days later, Australia recorded negative economic growth for first time since the Global Financial Crisis. GDP figures for the September quarter showed that the economy contracted by -0.5% against a median estimate of -0.1% which [...]

11 Dec, 2016

Weekly Highlights

By |2021-09-24T09:38:25+10:00Dec 11, 2016|Market Commentary|

Global equity markets continued to rally last week while government bond yields took a breather. Financial stocks led the way in the US on expectations that President-elect Donald Trump will follow through on promises to cut regulations (more specifically Dodd-Frank Act) and reduce taxes. The S&P 500 Financials Index is now up 18% since the election which is more than [...]

8 Dec, 2016

Hybrids Over The Holiday Period

By |2021-09-24T10:43:39+10:00Dec 8, 2016|Hybrids, Market Commentary|

Last week we entered the holiday period which is generally categorised as quiet for all financial markets. So, what can we expect over the next two months before reporting season commences once again in February 2017? As many companies in Australia shut down for the majority of the holiday period, primary market activity is limited. This is especially prominent in [...]

5 Dec, 2016

AFIG: How Optionality Impacts Valuation

By |2021-09-24T10:43:39+10:00Dec 5, 2016|Case Study, Education, Hybrids|

Over the past decade there have been a number of securities that feature the option to convert into ordinary equity at a pre-defined date. The conditions that trigger convertibility vary with each security but given this exposure, the price of security can be impacted by the underlying share price. The ratio of shares the investor receives for each security is [...]

4 Dec, 2016

Interest Rate Commentary

By |2016-12-04T21:11:48+11:00Dec 4, 2016|Market Commentary|

Although the RBA has been engaged in the cutting cycle since 2011, many market commentators are suggesting we have now reached the bottom of the interest rate cycle. The last few rate cuts have had little impact on their intended mechanisms and rather just fuelled property prices further. If the recent uptick in commodity prices is maintained, upward pressure on [...]

4 Dec, 2016

Weekly Highlights

By |2021-09-24T09:38:25+10:00Dec 4, 2016|Market Commentary|

Last week both equity and bond markets were weaker with the domestic 10-Year futures yield rising from 2.73% to 2.83% (partially retracing this morning to 2.76%). Markets were muted on Friday ahead of the US the non-farm payrolls job number, the Austrian presidential election and the Italian referendum on constitutional reform (early exit polls suggest the no vote is leading). [...]

28 Nov, 2016

Interest Rate Commentary

By |2016-11-28T01:16:41+11:00Nov 28, 2016|Market Commentary|

This week brings the key November US non farm payrolls report. Market expectations are for a strong increase in employment (~175,000), an acceleration in wage growth (2.9%) and lower unemployment (4.8%).  If the data meets (or exceeds) expectations, we would expect the interest rate futures market to increase the probability of further rate hikes in 2017 which would lead to [...]