1 Jun, 2015

AGL Strategy Road Map: No change to our HOLD recommendation

By |2015-06-01T05:00:10+10:00Jun 1, 2015|Hybrids|

This week was a big week for AGL Energy, as it released its strategic road map ahead of a two-day investor briefing at AGL's Macquarie Generation power plants in the Hunter Valley. It was also the occasion for newly appointed CEO Andy Vesey to outline its plan on how to improve its return on funds employed and hopefully deliver sustainable earnings growth in [...]

28 May, 2015

S&P Lowers its Outlook from Positive to Stable on Goodman Group: Confirms our HOLD recommendation

By |2015-05-28T00:35:49+10:00May 28, 2015|Bonds, Hybrids|

S&P revised last week Goodman Group's outlook from Positive to Stable, while at the same time confirming its BBB long-term corporate credit rating. The change of outlook is due to the rating agency's assessment that Goodman's financial policy won't be as financially conservative and would be prepared to increase its look-through gearing to 40-45% in certain circumstances. The rating agency [...]

25 May, 2015

Bank Income: Deposits, Debt, Hybrids or Equity

By |2015-05-25T02:40:22+10:00May 25, 2015|Deposits, Hybrids|

The chase for yield by self managed super funds has been well documented but despite the warnings by regulators, commentators and analysts about further changes to regulations, bank share prices continued to trade well above their long term average (on a price to earnings multiple basis). In a low interest rate environment this demand for yield is completely understandable, but dividends are purely a function of capital [...]

20 May, 2015

Exchange Traded Bond Units (“XTBs”) have launched

By |2015-05-20T05:37:34+10:00May 20, 2015|Bonds, Market Commentary|

Last week the Australian Corporate Bond Company formally launched their Exchange Traded Bond Units ("XTBs") offering retail investors access to corporate bonds on the Australian Securities Exchange. This product will change the way investors participate in fixed income markets which were historically restricted to wholesale investors. Here is a list of XTB's available as at 19 May 2015: ASX Code Underlying Bond Underlying Issuer YTMAZJ [...]

13 May, 2015

Bank shares or Bank Tier 1 hybrids – a question of choice!

By |2015-05-13T04:47:41+10:00May 13, 2015|Bonds, Hybrids, Market Commentary|

The last two weeks have seen a severe decline in the price of bank shares, a steepening in the yield curve and a slight widening in Tier 1 regulated Bank hybrid securities. As an example CBA’s PERLS VII is off 6.5% from its issue price and the common equity is off 15% from its high ($96.30). This gives investors the following yield choices: CBA special deposit [...]

13 May, 2015

Bond vs. Term Deposit Liquidity

By |2015-05-13T04:31:26+10:00May 13, 2015|Bonds, Deposits|

With the spotlight on lower term deposit yields we thought it worth focusing on their liquidity . Essentially, term deposits can be broken before maturity with the issuing bank. There is no broad market determining the price, just a single bank and their deposit pricing systems. The following is a real life example as at 11th May, 2015: Term deposit with  major bank yielding 3.3% [...]

12 May, 2015

Macau’s continued weak gaming revenues plus sizeable Capital Investment triggers a change in our recommendation for Crown Subordinated Notes

By |2015-05-12T11:28:14+10:00May 12, 2015|Bonds, Hybrids|

After a 39.4% decline in gaming revenue for the month of March and a 35% fall over the first 3 months of the year, the Gaming Inspection and Coordination Bureau of Macau reported a 38.8% year on year decline in gross gaming revenue in April, the 11th consecutive monthly decline. In the first 4 months of 2015, Macau's gross gaming [...]

12 May, 2015

Review: Bank Reporting Season

By |2015-05-12T00:43:57+10:00May 12, 2015|Hybrids, Market Commentary|

Over the past week ANZ, NAB , WBC and Macquarie have all reported their half year results and CBA provided a quarterly update. The theme is consistent across issuers with cash earnings remaining strong (although below inflated expectations), asset quality remained relatively stable (with the exception of a couple of outliers) but the key theme has been an increase in [...]

3 May, 2015

Transurban: Credit Rating Agencies enforce our Sell Recommendation

By |2015-05-03T20:58:59+10:00May 3, 2015|Bonds|

On April 30th, 2015, Transurban issued a press release regarding the Victorian Government announcement that it will progress Transurban's proposal to deliver a new Melbourne motorway (called the Western Distributor), which will provide an alternaive to the West Gate Bridge and will keep trucks off the city's inner west. On the same day, Standard & Poor's (S&P) announced that it [...]