Market Commentary.

12 Oct, 2016

Samarco: Reading the Fine Print

By |2021-09-24T10:43:40+10:00Oct 12, 2016|Bonds, Case Study|

Back in November 2015, news came too light that a Brazilian dam owned by a BHP joint-venture had collapsed, fatally injuring a number of employees and damaging nearby communities. This was followed by extensive legal proceedings brought forward by Brazilian government regarding clean-up costs and compensation of BRL155 billion (~AUD $62.5 million). Samarco is a joint-venture between BHP Billiton and [...]

10 Oct, 2016

Interest Rate Commentary

By |2016-10-10T01:42:02+11:00Oct 10, 2016|Market Commentary|

Over the past week, the Australian government bond yield curve steepened significantly as uncertainty regarding US monetary policy continues to drive global interest rate volatility. Fixed rate bonds with a term greater than 5 years rose more rapidly in yield than shorter dated bonds as the generic Australian 10-year bond futures ended the week ~0.22% higher in yield at 2.14%. [...]

3 Oct, 2016

Interest Rate Commentary

By |2021-09-24T09:50:25+10:00Oct 3, 2016|Market Commentary|

The Reserve Bank's monthly board meeting is on Tuesday - the first under new Governor Philip Lowe - and is likely to be a key focus for investors in the coming week. While the Australian dollar remains strong, GDP growth is beating expectations, commodity prices have risen and overall economic data remains resilient despite decreased mining investment. As a result, [...]

28 Sep, 2016

Alumina: Understanding Coupon Step-Up Clauses

By |2021-09-24T10:43:40+10:00Sep 28, 2016|Bonds, Case Study|

In recent months, Alumina Limited (ASX: AWC) has been media spotlight regarding an ongoing legal dispute with its major business partner Alcoa. Both companies form part of the world’s largest Alumina business, Alcoa World Alumina and Chemicals (AWAC), which is involved in bauxite mining as well as alumina refining and smelting. Figure 1. AWAC Ownership Source: Company Reports In early [...]

28 Sep, 2016

The Fed Dot Plot Explained

By |2021-09-24T10:43:40+10:00Sep 28, 2016|Federal Reserve|

It has now been over nine years since the U.S. Federal (Fed) Reserve started to ease monetary policy in June 2007 in response to a slowing US economy and the unravelling of the US subprime housing loan market that eventually led to a global credit squeeze and financial contagion. During this period of distress central banks around the globe followed [...]

28 Sep, 2016

Nufarm Subordinated Step-Up Securities (NFNG) Update

By |2021-09-24T10:43:40+10:00Sep 28, 2016|Market Commentary|

Consistent with other Australian corporates, Nufarm posted solid results for the 2016 financial year from strong cost optimisation rather than increased product demand as underlying EBITDA rose by 17.2% to $372 million despite only a 2% increase in revenue. However, underlying net profit after tax was hit by the group’s emerging market operations (down 7%) as volatile economic conditions resulted [...]

26 Sep, 2016

Interest Rate Commentary

By |2016-09-26T23:44:03+10:00Sep 26, 2016|Market Commentary|

The 10-Year Australian government bond yield fell to 1.98% in early trading this morning (from 2.00% at Friday close). This was a function of a global bond market rallying last week following numerous central bank meetings with the US 10-Year rate falling 0.10% to 1.61% on Friday. Firstly, the BoJ announced a change to its policy framework by introducing "yield [...]

18 Sep, 2016

Interest Rate Commentary

By |2016-09-18T23:44:07+10:00Sep 18, 2016|Market Commentary|

The 10-Year Australian government bond yield rose to ~2.16% early trading this morning (from ~2.09% at Friday’s close), the highest level since Brexit in July. As a result the Australian yield curve continues to steepen as yields for shorter dated bonds rise less than longer dated bonds. US yields rose on Friday night following stronger than expected US CPI data, [...]

14 Sep, 2016

Liquidity and Technical Drivers of Hybrids

By |2021-09-24T10:43:40+10:00Sep 14, 2016|Hybrids, Market Commentary|

Bank hybrids have been issued in the Australian financial landscape for over 20 years in various forms. While drivers of performance have varied over this period, they are typically cyclical and have a recurring impact on security trading margins (albeit at different magnitudes). The focus of the article will be on what is technically known as an Additional Tier 1 [...]

14 Sep, 2016

The Term Deposit Curve is Steepening

By |2021-09-24T10:43:40+10:00Sep 14, 2016|Deposits, Market Commentary|

Last month, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) cut the official cash rate by 0.25% to 1.50% with many Australian banks deciding not to pass on the full rate cut to mortgage holders and instead partially maintaining (and in some cases improving) some term deposit rates. In response to media criticism the banks cited regulatory reasons for these actions but [...]