Market Commentary.

10 Jul, 2019

Term Deposit Review – June 2019

By |2021-09-24T10:43:34+10:00Jul 10, 2019|Deposits, Market Commentary|

The major market indices experienced a strong month through June, benefiting from positive geopolitical developments and an increasingly dovish rate outlook from central banks around the world. The ASX200 reported a robust gain of 3.47%, surging late in the month on the back of President Trump’s announcement that the US will restart negotiations with China. Meanwhile, Australian treasuries broke new [...]

11 Jun, 2019

Term Deposit Review – May 2019

By |2021-09-24T10:43:34+10:00Jun 11, 2019|Deposits, Market Commentary|

Markets continue to suffer as trade negotiations persist, placing Australian firms in a very uncertain environment. The ASX 200 gained a modest 0.3% in May, aggressively retracing gains made earlier in the month and with the first trading day of June being the worst for the year to date. This followed soft credit growth in April (+0.16%), with tighter lending [...]

9 May, 2019

Term Deposit Review – April 2019

By |2021-09-24T10:43:34+10:00May 9, 2019|Deposits, Market Commentary|

Markets rallied further, continuing the theme of 2019 with the ASX200 up 2% over the month and a tightening of 9bps and 1bp occurred in the Australian iTraxx and Sovereign curves respectively. On the domestic front, there was mainly negative news for savers as first quarter inflation printed exactly flat at 0.0%, significantly increasing the implied probability of two RBA [...]

18 Apr, 2019

Another Peril of Vertical Integration – URF

By |2021-09-24T10:43:35+10:00Apr 18, 2019|Bonds, Case Study|

The financial world has been littered with pieces discussing, generally in a distinctively disapproving tone, the true motivations behind the Evans Dixon Group and its New York-focused US Masters Residential Property Fund (URF).  Although we will not completely dissect the strategy’s positives and negatives since inception, there are some very obvious lessons to be understood. In isolation, the initial premise [...]

4 Apr, 2019

Yield Parity, Not Risk Parity

By |2021-09-24T10:43:35+10:00Apr 4, 2019|Bonds, Case Study|

Much has been said in recent months about the wider stability (or lack of) within Italian Banking. Likewise, the apparent unpredictability of US markets has also been well publicised.  BondAdviser has provided various comments on both topics in previous additions of Up the Curve, available here. Late last month, following a systemic selloff in risk assets, the 10-year government bond [...]

4 Apr, 2019

Term Deposit Review – March 2019

By |2021-09-24T10:43:35+10:00Apr 4, 2019|Deposits, Market Commentary|

Following a rebound in equity markets over the first two months of 2019, equity markets moderated throughout March as bond market headlines became the flavour of the month.  Meanwhile, ABS figures revealed deteriorating economic data as GDP grew at just 0.2% in the December quarter, which translated to an annualised rate of 2.3%.  This increased market expectations that the central [...]

21 Mar, 2019

The Bank Bill Swap Rate: Disconnected From RBA Cash?

By |2019-03-21T04:17:46+11:00Mar 21, 2019|Education, Market Commentary|

In our previous post, we discussed the potential impact that a falling interest rate environment falling interest rate environment may have on AT1 hybrids valuations. To summarize that article, BondAdviser does not believe an RBA cash rate cut will have too dramatic an impact on hybrid valuations. Further to this discussion, it feels prudent to explore movements in the bank [...]

7 Mar, 2019

Term Deposit Review – February 2019

By |2021-09-24T10:43:35+10:00Mar 7, 2019|Deposits, Market Commentary|

Markets extended their January gains through February in a month largely dominated by reporting season news. From a rates perspective, caution was preached by both the Fed and RBA - firming their neutral stances on monetary policy. On the domestic front, the RBA further distanced itself from previous guidance, which was posturing that the next move was up rather than [...]

21 Feb, 2019

The Value of Independent Research

By |2021-09-24T09:18:37+10:00Feb 21, 2019|Case Study|

In the current unsettled times, with the financial and banking sector braced for more active and aggressive regulators and possible sweeping changes to operating models, the issues associated with reliable investor information and recommendations appear more relevant than ever. It is not that transparency from issuers is being brought into question, though it seemingly is. It is the murkiness with [...]

6 Feb, 2019

Term Deposit Review – January 2019

By |2021-09-24T10:43:35+10:00Feb 6, 2019|Deposits, Market Commentary|

January proved to be a solid start for markets in 2019 as a softening in the Fed’s rhetoric and strong(ish) Australian CPI data encouraged sentiment. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell announced the Fed would be “patient” on any future rate changes and signalled flexibility in its balance sheet normalisation policy, which tempered volatility for the time being. Brexit and US-China trade [...]