Market Commentary.

24 Apr, 2018

US Interest Rates are Rising: Here’s Why the RBA Won’t Budge

By |2021-09-24T10:43:37+10:00Apr 24, 2018|Bonds, Federal Reserve, Market Commentary|

U.S. Federal Reserve chairman Jerome Powell loves an interest rate hike and is planning several of them. The recently-appointed Fed Chair is bullish on global economic health, stating that “the economy has strengthened” and in his view “inflation is moving up to target”.  Direct statements like these from the moderate Republican have global markets pricing in 3-5 rate hikes in [...]

11 Apr, 2018

Bank Funding Costs and The Future of Borrowing

By |2018-04-11T23:52:01+10:00Apr 11, 2018|Case Study, Education|

Since March this year, the benchmark local borrowing rate for Australian banks – the Bank Bill Swap Rate (BBSW) has risen sharply from ~1.80% to over 2.00% as we type, reflecting higher bank funding costs. In the meantime, USD funding costs as represented by the London Interbank Offer Rate (LIBOR) have also risen significantly, after surpassing BBSW since January this [...]

28 Mar, 2018

How Would Credit Markets Fare in a Trade War?

By |2018-03-28T23:20:43+11:00Mar 28, 2018|Market Commentary|

Over recent weeks, we have seen U.S. President Donald Trump introduce his latest protectionist policy by placing import tariffs on steel and aluminium on various countries, most notably, China. The imposition of a 10% tariff on aluminium and 25% on steel led to global outcry from numerous trade partners and forced the Trump administration to grant exemptions for certain countries [...]

28 Mar, 2018

USPP Market – Why Do We Care?

By |2018-03-28T22:58:06+11:00Mar 28, 2018|Case Study, Education|

Tabcorp recently announced that it had successfully priced US$1.4 billion long-term notes to investors in the US Private Placement (USPP) market. The placement comprises four USD and two AUD-denominated tranches, with maturities evenly spaced between 8 – 18 years. The notes will be issued in June 2018. All USD proceeds will be swapped into AUD, resulting in total AUD proceeds [...]

14 Mar, 2018

The Dangers of Global Ambitions – A Case Study

By |2018-03-14T23:00:23+11:00Mar 14, 2018|Case Study|

CBL Insurance (CBL) is the largest and oldest provider of credit surety and financial risk insurance in New Zealand and has been operating for over 40 years. CBL provides a range of property-related insurance and reinsurance products. Although based in New Zealand, it has an extensive international presence in Europe, Malaysia and Latin America. CBL is not rated by the [...]

1 Mar, 2018

Listed Corporate Hybrid Update: APA First To Go In 2018

By |2021-09-24T10:43:37+10:00Mar 1, 2018|Bonds, Hybrids, Market Commentary|

For the past few years, ASX-listed corporate debt and hybrid securities have dwindled leaving investors with a shrinking opportunity set to diversify outside the AT1 capital instrument market. This reduction in supply began with the Origin and Woolworths Subordinated Notes (ASX: ORGHA, WOWHC) being called at the end of 2016. This was followed by Caltex, Goodman and Tabcorp redeeming their [...]

14 Feb, 2018

Cycle Predictors: The VIX vs Credit Spreads

By |2018-02-14T22:10:56+11:00Feb 14, 2018|Education, Market Commentary|

Last week, global equity markets experienced a severe sell-off which originated for the US following better than expected wage inflation data. While this is generally an indication of a strengthening underlying economy, equity investors were spooked of the idea that the era of easy month (and hence the return of a free flowing economy) was coming to an end. As [...]

14 Feb, 2018

The Art and/or Science of Price Discovery

By |2018-02-14T21:57:07+11:00Feb 14, 2018|Case Study, Education|

One of the fundamental functions of capital markets is to determine an appropriate pricing of risk – the process of finding that magical equilibrium where the capital surplus suppliers and the capital deficit demand side are mutually agreeable, representing the fair cost of capital, given all the available information. That is the theory anyway. In practice, determining an appropriate price [...]